Tüpraş Stock Analysis 2026: Dividends, SAF & Future Forecast

Forget the dusty technical analyses that only look in the rearview mirror. For Tüpraş (TUPRS), 2026 is no longer just about refining crude oil. It is about one of the most aggressive transformations in the BIST indexand a dividend that allows investors to sleep soundly, even in a high inflation environment.

As a Senior Editor analyzing the Turkish market, I have tracked the pivot of this energy giant closely. What we are seeing today is a company doing the splits: on one side, the classic “Cash Cow” refinery delivering solid margins in 2025, and on the other, a massive overhaul toward Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and green energy through its subsidiary, Entek. But does the entry price still make sense now that the P/E ratio has lifted off its lows?

The 2026 Status Quo: More Than Just Gasoline

Tüpraş (Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A. Ş.) remains the industrial heartbeat of Turkey. With four refineries in İzmit, Kırıkkale, İzmir, and Batman, the company covers the vast majority of the nation’s diesel and jet fuel needs. However, if you only see a “gas station” here, you are missing the bigger picture.

Traffic in metropolises remains a constant driver of demand. Anyone who has looked into buying a car in Turkey knows that despite high costs, the roads are fuller than ever, securing the baseline demand for fuel. But the real “Hidden Gems” for investors lie in the strategic pivot:

• The Entek Acquisition: Since integrating Entek, Tüpraş has bet the house on renewables. In early 2025, they acquired a 214 MW solar project in Romaniaa clear signal of European expansion.
• SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel): This is the game changer. Production using the Co Processing method at the İzmir plant is scheduled to ramp up in 2026. A deal with Turkish Airlines is already signed. This isn’t a pipe dream; it is operational reality.

Financial Deep Dive: The Numbers Behind the Hype

This is where we separate the signal from the noise. Many retail investors simply look at net profit, but with Turkish assets in 2025/2026, you need to look closer. High inflation (and the mandatory IAS 29 inflation accounting) often distorts the picture.

1. Valuation & P/E (The “New Normal”)

Do you remember when Tüpraş traded at a P/E of 3? Those days are gone. By late 2025, the Price to-Earnings ratio (P/E) settled around 11.0. While this sounds expensive compared to history, it signifies normalization. The market is no longer pricing in total collapse, but rather a stable future.

• P/E (TTM 2025): ~11.0 (Global industry average is often higher)
• Net Cash Position: As of September 30, 2025, Tüpraş sat on a net cash cushion of 74.4 Billion TL. In an era of high interest rates, this balance sheet is a fortress.

2. The Dividend: Still a Monster?

For income investors, Tüpraş remains a favorite. The company’s policy is to distribute a significant portion of distributable profit, making it a staple for anyone starting a company in Turkey or building a local portfolio to hedge against living costs.

• 2025 Yield: Depending on your entry point, the yield hovered between 7.5% and 10%.
• Payout: In autumn 2025, they paid out approximately 7.42 TL per share.

[stock_market_widget type=”accordion” template=”info” color=”#8304D6″ assets=”TUPRS. IS, PETKM. IS” start_expanded=”true” display_currency_symbol=”true” api=”yf”]

Strategic Transformation 2050: More Than Just PR

The “Strategic Transformation Plan” is the core of the Bull Case. Tüpraş aims to be carbon neutral by 2050. Sound far off? The critical steps are happening right now.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

Things get serious in 2026. EU mandates (ReFuelEU Aviation) are forcing airlines to blend SAF into their fuel mix. Tüpraş is positioning itself as the central supplier for the region. The plan targets a capacity of up to 400,000 tons per year in the final stage.

Hydrogen & Entek

While green hydrogen is still a future play for 2030 (with a 20 MW electrolyzer pilot planned), Entek is already generating cash flow. The expansion to 1 GW capacity by 2030 is on track. This distinguishes Tüpraş from pure oil players: they are building their own competition in-house.

Risk Check: What Your Bank Advisor Won’t Tell You

No analysis is complete without the downsides. If you invest in Tüpraş, you must understand three specific risks:

1. The End of the “Russian Discount”

From 2022 to 2024, Tüpraş profited massively from cheaper Russian crude oil. Since February 2025, strict sanctions and market adjustments have shifted this dynamic. Margins are normalizing to a level of 6.0-6.5 USD/barrel. The era of “Super Profits” is largely over.

2. Currency Risk & IAS 29

For foreign investors, the Lira (TRY) remains a factor. While Tüpraş has a natural hedge through its export orientation (pricing products in dollars), inflation accounting (IAS 29) can lead to purely accounting based losses in some quarters, even if the operational cash flow is strong. Do not let the headline numbers fool you.

3. Regulation (ETS)

The planned Turkish Emissions Trading System (ETS) will incur costs. As the country’s largest emitter, Tüpraş will be forced to purchase certificates. However, this will be partially cushioned by their investments in Entek.

The 2026 Competitive Landscape

Tüpraş is not alone. Its biggest rival remains the STAR Refinery (SOCAR) in Aliağa. While STAR operates with extreme efficiency, Tüpraş holds the advantage of an integrated distribution network (via its stake in OPET) and superior logistics, particularly near industrial hubs like Kocaeli, where its main refinery powers the region’s industry.

[stock_market_widget type=”table quotes” template=”basic2″ color=”#8304D6″ assets=”TUPRS. IS” fields=”logo_name_symbol,price,change_abs,change_pct,market_cap” links=”{‘TUPRS. IS’:{}}” display_header=”true” display_chart=”true” display_currency_symbol=”true” pagination=”true” search=”false” rows_per_page=”5″ sort_field=”logo_name_symbol” sort_direction=”asc” alignment=”left” api=”yf”]

Editor’s Verdict: Buy, Hold, or Sell?

In 2026, Tüpraş is not a stock for gamblers hoping for a 100% gain in three months. It is a stock for substance investors.

The Final Call:

• Bull Case: Dividends remain high, SAF production launches successfully in 2026 generating new margins, and the massive cash position allows for further acquisitions in renewable energy.
• Bear Case: Global oil prices collapse, or refining margins dip faster than expected below the $5/barrel mark.

If you are looking to add Turkish assets to your portfolio, it is hard to ignore this heavyweight. It is the rock in the surfas long as you keep an eye on currency fluctuations.

Company Data Snapshot

[stock_market_widget type=”key value-table companies” template=”basic” assets=”TUPRS. IS” fields=”logo_name,symbol,industry,sector,website,phone” api=”yf”]