Turkey’s Economic Turnover Indices: Sector Analysis

Important Note: This article originally analyzed April 2024 turnover indices. As of January 2026, Turkey’s Statistical Institute (TÜİK) has not yet released turnover index data for any 2026 reference period. The first 2026 turnover indices are expected in March–April 2026. Below, we preserve the analytical framework while noting that investors and policymakers should monitor TÜİK’s official releases for the latest data.

For current economic indicators, the Consumer Price Index shows inflation at 30.89% year-on-year as of December 2025 (released January 5, 2026), while the Turkish Lira trades at approximately 42.88 TRY/USD and 50.29 TRY/EUR according to the Central Bank (TCMB).

Understanding Turkey’s Turnover Indices

Turkey’s turnover indices measure business activity across four major sectors: industry, construction, trade, and services. These metrics serve as early indicators of economic momentum, revealing which parts of the economy are expanding or contracting before GDP figures arrive.

The indices track revenue generation rather than production volume, making them particularly useful for spotting shifts in consumer demand and business confidence. For anyone doing business in Turkey or tracking its economic health, these numbers matter more than most headlines suggest.

How to Read Sector Performance Data

Year-on-Year vs. Monthly Changes

When analyzing turnover indices, you’ll encounter two types of comparisons:

• Annual growth: Compares the same month across different years, smoothing out seasonal variations
• Monthly changes: Shows recent momentum but can be choppy due to holidays, weather, or one-off events

Smart analysts watch both. Strong annual growth with weak monthly figures might signal a slowdown, while the reverse could indicate accelerating recovery.

Services Sector: The Growth Engine

The services sector typically shows the strongest correlation with consumer confidence. When this index jumps, it usually means:

• Tourism revenue is climbing (hotels, restaurants, transportation)
• Professional services are seeing increased demand
• Retail spending on experiences is outpacing goods

Insider tip: Services growth often leads construction booms by 3-6 months. When restaurants and hotels expand, real estate developers take notice.

Construction Sector Dynamics

Construction indices are notoriously volatile. A strong annual number paired with a sharp monthly drop doesn’t necessarily spell trouble—it might just reflect:

• Seasonal weather disruptions (winter months)
• Project completion cycles (finishing one large project before starting another)
• Payment timing issues with government contracts

What matters more: Is credit flowing to builders? Are building permits rising? Watch those leading indicators alongside turnover data.

Trade Sector: The Consumer Pulse

Trade indices combine wholesale and retail activity, offering a window into:

• Consumer purchasing power: Are people buying beyond necessities?
• Business restocking patterns: Wholesale strength suggests retailers expect future demand
• Import health: Strong trade numbers with high imports signal consumption-driven growth

For investors, steady trade growth beats explosive spikes. Consistency indicates sustainable consumer confidence rather than debt-fueled spending bursts.

Industry Sector Considerations

Industrial turnover reflects manufacturing output value. When this sector lags others, dig deeper:

• Are input costs squeezing margins?
• Is export demand weakening?
• Are manufacturers shifting from volume to value-added production?

Lower industrial growth isn’t always bad news. Turkey’s economy has been transitioning toward services for years. The question is whether industry is modernizing or stagnating.

Practical Investment Implications

For Business Owners

• Expansion timing: Enter growing sectors when monthly and annual trends align
• Supplier negotiations: Use turnover data to gauge suppliers’ bargaining position
• Hiring decisions: Lead sector growth by 2-3 months—hire before competitors

For Investors

• Services strength favors hospitality, retail, and financial stocks
• Construction growth benefits cement, steel, and building material companies
• Trade expansion supports logistics and warehousing plays

Red Flags to Watch

Certain patterns in turnover data deserve extra scrutiny:

1. Services growing much faster than industry: Might indicate over-reliance on consumption versus production
2. Construction booming alone: Could signal a property bubble if not backed by services growth
3. All sectors rising equally: Suspiciously perfect—might reflect inflation rather than real growth
4. Strong annual, weak monthly across all sectors: The recovery might be losing steam

Reading Between the Numbers

Turnover indices don’t exist in a vacuum. Cross-reference them with:

• Inflation data: High turnover growth with high inflation means real growth is lower than it appears
• Employment figures: Revenue growth without hiring might indicate productivity gains or price increases
• Trade balance: Import-heavy growth differs from export-driven expansion
• Exchange rates: Lira weakness inflates turnover in local currency terms

Pro tip: Download the raw data from TÜİK and track three-month moving averages. This smooths out noise and reveals genuine trends that monthly headlines miss.

Where to Find Fresh Data

TÜİK releases turnover indices monthly, typically 6-8 weeks after the reference period. You’ll find them at:

• TÜİK’s official data portal (data.tuik.gov.tr)
• The press release section under economic indicators
• Excel downloads with full historical series

Set up alerts for “Turnover Indices” releases. Being first to analyze new data gives you an edge in fast-moving Turkish markets.

The Bottom Line

Turnover indices offer a monthly heartbeat check on Turkey’s economy—faster than GDP, more detailed than industrial production alone, and directly tied to business revenue rather than abstract output measures.

The smart approach: Track all four sectors, compare monthly momentum against annual trends, and always adjust for inflation and currency movements. When services, construction, trade, and industry move together, Turkey’s economy is firing on all cylinders. When they diverge, that’s where the interesting stories—and opportunities—hide.

For the most current data, including 2026 releases when available, bookmark TÜİK’s statistics portal and check back monthly. In Turkey’s dynamic economy, last month’s winner can be this month’s laggard, and vice versa.